Event Schedule

This half-day trip will start at the Mt. Washington Hotel and visit several places in nearby towns. We will examine geological features that have led to new interpretations of glacial events in the White Mountains, and how these features relate to climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic region. The influence of postglacial climate on human settlement in northern New Hampshire (from Paleoindians to the 1800's) will also be discussed. Transportation will be provided in vans. Some stops include short walks through gravel pits or wooded terrain, so participants should wear sturdy shoes and outdoor clothing.

The world is facing a growing conflict between environment and development. The climate issue exemplifies the challenge. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations.

To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Climate research needs to focus on predictions that relate to economic, social, and environmental effects. Forecasts should take account of the economic, technological, and political forces that drive emissions and the significant science and policy connections between regional air pollution and climate. Assessments of possible societal and ecosystem impacts, and the analysis of mitigation or adaptation strategies need to be based on realistic evaluations of the uncertainties of climate science and the likely paths to their reduction.

Motivated by the challenge of bringing together these diverse elements, we have developed an Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub-models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of an uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without specific mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise between 1.0 and 4.9°C from 1990 to 2100 (95% confidence limits). Polar temperatures, absent policy, are projected to rise from about 2 to 12°C (95% limits) with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems, ice sheets and sea level rise even at the median of this range. Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol, and more stringent climate mitigation policies, shows the disparities among countries in economic costs and the difficulties in accounting simply for the effects of other greenhouse gases relative to carbon dioxide.

Faced with the above serious risks, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capitalintensive global energy and agriculture infrastructure, the case is very strong for concerted action now. We also need to address the economic and environmental impacts of future potential low emission energy sources operating at the multi-trillion watt scales needed for them to make a significant contribution to future total energy demand (e.g. billions of acres of land for bio-fuels, many millions of wind turbines, thousands of nuclear power stations, thousands of coalburning power stations with carbon capture and storage).

The challenge is to devise national and international approaches to this problem involving all countries, enco passing a wide range of energy options, and based on sound economic practices.

Air quality measurements in the Northeast U.S. and associated relationships with source emissions have made important contributions to our understanding of regional air quality and the role played by long range transport. The air we breathe today is significantly cleaner than that which was present thirty years ago. Regulatory actions past and present have managed to improve air quality in the region in the midst of sustained growth and increasing consumption. The trends in air quality in the region are presented and comparisons with estimated trends in emissions evaluated for consistency with regulatory actions. Such retrospective analyses are important in establishing accountability in the air quality management process and in demonstrating the effectiveness of air quality control programs. The attributes of national monitoring networks are presented and the need for long term commitments to measure specific air pollutants in the region in support of an "accountable" air quality management system are discussed.

The AIRMAP program at the University of New Hampshire has been funded by the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA) since 2000. A network of six air quality monitoring observatories has been established, spanning from sea level on Appledore Island in the Gulf of Maine to 2 km altitude on the summit of Mount Washington. In parallel, a regional climate and air quality modeling capability was developed to facilitate understanding of complex dynamical and chemical processes. In summer 2002 the New England Air Quality Study was conducted in collaboration with NOAA. A follow up study occurred in 2004 as the International Consortium for Research in Atmospheric Transport and Transformation. This study was international in scope, and employed aircraft, ships, ground sites, and balloons as observational platforms. Overall, AIRMAP faculty and students have published more than 50 papers in the past five years that span diverse aspects of New England air quality and climate. Of particular interest is the impact of long-range transport over various spatial scales, photochemical cycling of pollutants and toxic species such as mercury, continental-marine air mass interactions, and air qualityclimate connections. I will summarize these findings and present the current state of understanding for key factors controlling air quality in New England.

Northeastern U.S. forests are affected by a variety of environmental stress factors acting over a wide range of time scales. Understanding their combined effects is difficult because the ecological processes they influence are complex and because some pollutants can either exacerbate or offset the effects of others. Will rising CO2 and atmospheric deposition of nitrogen cause a greening of the region's forests or will acid rain and ozone pollution lead to declines and dieback of our favorite tree species? Predicted changes in climate add another degree of complexity, with similar potential for feedbacks, interactions and surprises. Underlying these modern day changes are the imprints left by historical land use, which continue to influence northeastern forests through their long-term effects on soils. Although finding answers to these questions is challenging, our understanding has improved steadily through field experiments, gradient analyses and computer models that simulate complex ecosystem processes. This talk will discuss some of the key issues related to air quality, climate change and northeastern forests and will highlight the methods and models used to address them.

A number of critically important issues resulting from rapid changes in atmospheric composition and ecosystem inputs have become apparent in recent years. Climate change, especially as it relates to water availability and quality, is emerging as a national security issue. Fossil fuel combustion, industrial activities, and fertilizer application have resulted in a doubling of reactive nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems, which can significantly impact downstream aquatic ecosystems locally, regionally, and nationally, as evidenced by the annual appearance of an extensive dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. Significantly enhanced levels of atmospheric CO2 have already led to widespread warming in the Arctic, are expected to lead to substantial changes in climate in all parts of the United States, and may also lead to significant changes in sea level and ocean circulation and acidity. As well, increased sea surface temperature is expected to result in increased rates of evaporation and increased rainfall amounts and/or increased storm intensity, which can result in increased rates of coastal erosion. Understanding economic impacts and developing effective air quality policies require an improved capability for monitoring ecosystems and for studying the effects of multiple stresses on terrestrial and aquatic systems. Some of the strategies proposed or underway to address these issues are new national and global observing systems, greater involvement of stakeholders, interdisciplinary training of scientists, and improved communication between scientists and decision makers.

Dr. Spengler will provide an historical perspective on indoor air pollution in the modern era of conditioned buildings and synthetic materials. Combustion related pollutants (CO, NO2, particles, ETS), radon and formaldehyde made their appearance in the 1960s and early 1970s. Indoor air quality was finally taken seriously as tighter buildings and lower ventilation rates were promoted in response to the energy crisis of the 1970s. The 1980s saw the emergence of sick building studies as several European countries launched major studies and NIOSH refocused health hazard assessments to respond to the growing number of complaints from occupants in office buildings. By the 1990s, epidemiological studies and the rise in asthma signaled a shift away from chemical contaminants to biological agents.

New issues related to the built environment will inevitably emerge. On the current list of chemicals likely to be of concern are several synthetic organic compounds: polychlorinated biphenyls in building materials; phthalates in polyvinyl chloride materials used in flooring, wall coverings, cables, foam, and other products of which plastic is a component; polybrominated diphenyl esters, which are fire retardants used in many products, including computers; pesticide residues, including the recently introduced family of pyrethroids; and cleaning agents such as those with phenol, among other potentially sensitizing compounds.

With the awakening to climate change and the decline of ecological systems, the resource-intense built environment becomes central to the strategy of resource management. Green building evaluation criteria will place more emphasis on the quality of indoor air and the management of chemicals.

The Northeast States face a critical juncture in terms of planning for compliance with multiple air quality and climate mitigation targets ranging from National Ambient Air Quality Standard attainment (PM2.5 and ground-level ozone), establishing critical load targets for acid deposition and mercury control, adopting regional haze reasonable progress goals, and achieving goals set forth in state climate change action plans. A regional-scale integrated assessment framework is being utilized to identify optimal solutions to multi-pollutant, energy, environmental, economic, and public health issues. This talk will explore the nature of the multiple environmental challenges facing the region and provide insight into cost-effective strategies that have potential to simultaneously address their varied impacts.

What is climate, and how is climate actually measured? What is feedback, and how much confidence should we place in computer models? Statements about climate often contain hidden assumptions: what are they? Citizens need answers to these questions in order to cope with the daily flood of information concerning climate change and global warming. I will review our current understanding of the basic principles that regulate Earth's climate over long periods of time, and relate these principles to worries about modern climate change. The evidence is unassailable that today's world is getting warmer, but it is difficult to forge a social consensus on dealing with that reality. While our knowledge of complex Earth systems is incomplete, and likely to remain so for the foreseeable future, uncertainty is no excuse for inaction.

In 1975-76 I participated in a 2-year dendroclimatologic study atop Mt. Washington under the tutelage and inspiration of climatologists from across the northeast. The dramatic and incontrovertible findings of that research and similar investigations have been validated, refined and reinforced over the ensuing decades. Instead of further polishing our regression analyses to establish causal probability models predicting treeline positions, I set out on a different investigation: is it possible to create climate-friendly enterprises, jobs and economic development? This presentation will summarize the very promising findings of a 25-year odyssey in building a $300 million company.

Analysis of historical records of hurricane activity reveals large variability from one decade to the next. How much of this variability is random, how much can be said to be part of natural, regional or global climate fluctuations (such as El Nino), and how much is tied to man-made global climate change? These are important questions, as their answers bear on the pressing question of how hurricane activity might change over the next century. I will review what is known about climate influences on hurricane and discuss how hurricane activity might change in the future.

This talk will highlight some of the major weather events that have occurred over the last 75 years atop Mt. Washington. The talk will focus on extreme events, including some of the windiest, wettest, snowiest, and coldest periods. In describing these extreme events, we will learn about how weather systems work, and how Mt. Washington affects the regional weather and climate. Some of the included events are the snowy February of 1969, the heavy rains of October 2005, and the high wind events of April 1934 and April 2007.

Journalism and global warming are a bad fit, with the media often seemingly torn between hyping the problem or ignoring it altogether. Andrew Revkin, who has covered climate for more than 20 years in prize-winning magazine and newspaper stories, two books, and a documentary, discusses how industry, political operatives, environmentalists, and the journalism process itself have frequently distorted both the nature of the climate challenge and the scope of solutions. Without some adjustments, he says, the explosion of climate coverage of late might still not result in meaningful action. He will also sign copies of his most recent book on climate, "The North Pole Was Here," the first book demystifying global and Arctic climate change for the whole family. In a rare double accolade, it was named an Outstanding Science Book and Outstanding Social Studies Book of 2006 by the Childrens Book Council and partners.

This slide-illustrated presentation will focus on the historical origins and development of the Mount Washington Hotel at Bretton Woods from the early twentieth century to the present day. The primary emphasis will be on the hotel as an architectural monument and nationally renowned center of hospitality tourism. The Mount Washington will be highlighted as one of this country's last surviving pre-World War I grand resort hotels.

Combustion of coal, oil and gas has raised the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to levels higher than they have been for millions of years. A brief review of the history of Earth's climate puts the next hundred years in its natural context, suggesting that most predictions based on climate models may be underestimating the problem. Reducing risks of future climate change requires changes in existing energy systems distributed between three areas: increasing energy efficiency, increasing the stock of non-fossil energy generation, and adopting technologies for capturing and storing carbon dioxide from fossil fuels.

This is the centennial year for AMC's White Mountain Guide. What began as a slim guide to the "paths" in the Whites has grown to a comprehensive reference work covering 500 trails as well as mountain safety, conservation and stewardship. The evolution of the Guide reflects the many events that have shaped the White Mountains, from the formation the National Forest and creation of the trail and hut network to the Wilderness Act and backpacking boom, resulting in a focus on Leave No Trace and backcountry ethics. This talk will cover major milestones in the history of the guide and maps, to be covered in the upcoming White Mountain Guide: A Centennial Retrospective, to be published by AMC Books this fall. The talk will also provide a glimpse of the future, in the form of a new online edition of the White Mountain Guide.

Environmental concerns today are in some ways disturbingly similar and at the same time strikingly different from those that catalyzed the first Earth Day 37 years ago. Water pollution and air pollution led the list then, followed by loss of habitat and perhaps species; the concerns were local to regional. Today, in many parts of the world, there are similar place-based concerns: shortages of clean and accessible freshwater, health threatening changes in the chemistry of the atmosphere, severe degradation of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, increases in soil erosion, loss of biodiversity, alterations of the coastal zone, and declines in fisheries. But it strikes me that now we have a greater appreciation of the interconnected and ubiquitous nature of these difficulties.

The issues are complex and compelling: What do we know; what do we think we know; what do we not know; what should we do, and what should we not do? How do we undo this Faustian bargain?

Former observer and Executive Director Guy Gosselin traces the history of an organization that owes its survival and evolution to the individuals who have been associated with it over the years.

All speakers in the Climate track of the Symposium will gather for a panel discussion on issues raised during the Symposium. Questions from the audience will be fielded by the panel.

Broadcasting legend Don Kent, of WBZ Radio and TV in Boston, will be joined by some of his many professional colleagues as he reflects on changes in the world of broadcast meteorology over the years.

In a career that has spanned more than three decades, climatologist Lonnie Thompson has pioneered the science and the art of ice core drilling on high mountain glaciers. His techniques have always been public knowledge, yet he remains essentially the only practitioner of this unusual art.

In reporting for his first book, Thin Ice, author Mark Bowen joined Thompson on three expeditions to the high mountains of South America and Africa. He will tell some stories from those expeditions and others from the more than forty major expeditions that Thompson has undertaken over the decades. He will also present vivid evidence of the dramatic changes Thompson and others have observed in the mountain environment as a result of anthropogenic, that is, human-induced, global warming. The physics of glacial melting bears directly on the question of "dangerous anthropogenic interference," the amount of warming that would lead to dangerous consequences for society; for sea level would rise many tens of meters if the polar ice sheets were to collapse.

NASA climatologist James Hansen, whom the Bush administration attempted to censor at the beginning of 2006, has contributed as much as anyone to the current thinking about dangerous anthropogenic interference and what we can do to avoid it. Bowen is about to publish a book that he has written with the cooperation of Dr. Hansen. He will discuss the latest thinking on ice sheet collapse and touch briefly upon the politics of climate and the latest news, as well as Hansen's surprisingly optimistic view of the chances for solving the global warming problem.