100 days

2010-04-10 18:41:59.000 – Ryan Knapp,  Staff Meteorologist

Marty researching. What have you found for me?

If you follow the Julian calendar, then you know that April 10, 2010 marks the 100th day of this year. Not a huge deal for me or the summit by any means. But I thought it might be interesting to look back over the first 100 days of 2010 and see how we are doing similar to how the press looks at the first 100 days of a new president to see how they are doing. To those unfamiliar with what I am talking about, here’s a quick history lesson: When Franklin D Roosevelt took office, he was tasked in attempting to resolve the Great Depression. Through a series of bills and executive orders, the formation of the “New Deal” took shape in the first 100 days of his presidency. Some of the “New Deal” worked and some didn’t and some would argue that it was really WWII that actually turned America around. But over time, the “success” of his first 100 days has gone on to be something that the press and the public looks at in new presidents to see how a president is doing as far as passing campaign promises, who their cabinet appointments are, etc and possibly how the rest of their term might lay out.

And it isn’t just limited to the president of the United States, the first 100 days can give a progress report on how other people and things are proceeding. A new CEO or president of a corporation might be judged on their first 100 days. A new employee might use the first 100 days to show how hard of a worker they are. Some people use 100 days as a goal in quitting a bad habit or in weight loss. In a typical school year in the US (180-220 days pending on where you live) 100 days can indicate whether or not you can possibly turn a failing grade around by the end of the year or give you hope that summer vacation is just around the corner. But for most, 100 days in a year, a term, a semester, a job, etc is non-consequential and is just another day that comes and goes.

Now before I begin spouting out some statistics about our first 100 days of 2010, I want to state this is by no means an official scientific process. It is not an indicator about how the rest of the year will play out on the summits. This is just my comment being posted on what is essentially a blog. It is by no means a peer reviewed journal. It is just a light hearted examination on where we are so far. So let’s start with temperature. January was 3.4 degrees above normal, February was 1.6 degrees above normal, March was 6.8 degrees above normal and so far in April, we are roughly 13.6 degrees above normal. So it has been an above normal start for 2010 as far as temperatures go. Despite it being “warm”, we have only broken or tied four record highs and that was at the start of this month. But it should come as no surprise that we have not broken any record lows in our first 100 days.

So how about precipitation and snowfall? Precipitation from January until March was 19.95 inches which was 5.32 inches below normal for that time period with only 1.90 inches to add for April. A deficit that a few good, wet spring storms could make up before our meteorological year on the summit ends on June 30th, 2010. As far as snowfall goes, from January to March, 96.4 inches have fallen with a deficit of 52.9 going into April with only 3.6 falling so far. This is a pretty significant deficit to make up by June especially heading into the summer months when significant snowstorms become fewer and fewer. Not impossible but a steep uphill battle.

Winds are down as well. January was 9.8 mph below normal, February was 6.6 mph below normal and March was 5.6 mph below normal with April so far 2.7 mph above normal so far. So overall, kind of a slow year for average winds but even our high wind gusts are down. Days with 73 mph or more (hurricane force) are number 38 with only 4 of those days reaching 100 mph or more. To compare to last years first 100 days, we had 52 days above 73 mph with 15 of those 100 mph or more. And two years ago, we had 58 days above 73 mph with 18 of those 100 mph or more. So, I think you can see that this year is a bit down when compared to recent years.

So, if I had to summarize the Julian year so far in the first 100 days, I would say it is a warm, dry, and relatively calm year. But, like I mentioned earlier, our meteorological year spans from July 1, 2009 to June 30, 2010. So to judge 100 days on a Julian calendar is more like judging the third quarter of a game instead of the first. So most of our year has already played out but the “game” is far from over. Although, if you go by the Old Farmers Almanac, the northeast is suppose to be cool and dry this summer which means our precipitation deficit might hold or worsen until our year ends in June. But the great thing about weather is although we (meteorologists) might know what tomorrow might bring, the further out you go, it’s really anyone’s guess. We’ll just have to see how things play out and hope for the best.

Ryan Knapp,  Staff Meteorologist