Climate Prediction

2012-10-18 23:33:35.000 – Mike Carmon,  Weather Observer/Meteorologist

Graphics from the CPC

Will the upcoming winter be snowy or not? Warmer than average, or colder?

Today, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released their official predictions for the upcoming winter.

As far as New England is concerned, there is a lot of uncertainty with respect to temperature and precipitation. In both areas, there is an equal chance of an above- (warmer/wetter) versus a below- (colder/drier) average winter season. The uncertainty is due to the inability of the CPC to nail down the behavior of El Nino. El Nino conditions (or a lack thereof) have a large effect on the climate of the continental United States, and due to the unexpected absence of these conditions, there is a bit more uncertainty than normal in the CPC’s forecast for the northeastern United States.

For the rest of the country, however, the results are a bit more conclusive:

With respect to temperature, a warmer-than-average winter can be expected for a large swath of the western continental United States, while Florida can expect a possible colder-than-average winter.

With respect to precipitation, it looks like a drier-than-average winter for the Pacific northwest, along with the upper Midwest. In contrast, portions of the Gulf Coast may experience a wetter-than-average winter.

For more information and further in-depth graphics, check out the CPC’s website.

Mike Carmon,  Weather Observer/Meteorologist